Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
